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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.